And In The End

I spent the day on Sunday in a swing state out canvasing and making calls. The Obama office was a mess, it was chaotic. But the people there were extremely focused and full of energy. These people were going non-stop. When you look at the strength of the campaign effort that has grown up around Barack Obama on can’t help but be amazed. The level of participation shows that people are really ready to take back ownership of their government.

So what happened to the McCain campaign. The offices are neat and orderly, and empty. FiveThirtyEight has an interesting photo essay by Brett Marty on the lack of participation on the McCain side. It seems as if they have already given up.

 

   These ground campaigns do not bear any relationship to one another. One side has something in the neighborhood of five million volunteers all assigned to very clear and specific pieces of the operation, and the other seems to have something like a thousand volunteers scattered throughout the country. Jon Tester’s 2006 Senate race in Montana had more volunteers — by a mile — than John McCain’s 2006 presidential campaign.

Not a Serious Campaign Effort

When I look at how the McCain campaign has been run, it seems like a half-hearted effort. Even John McCain seems to be uncomfortable or even embarrassed by it at times. 

So the question is, is McCain the disposable candidate the GOP felt they could sacrifice in a year they felt they didn’t have any hope of winning?

With the President’s approval so low and the country sliding into a deep recession, the chances for any Republican candidate were slim. Conventional wisdom is that an individual only has a few shots at running before they are considered inviable. He lost out in 2000 and at the age of 72 this is his last chance to run.

Perhaps the choice of Palin wasn’t so much a radical choice, as it was the only one left for him.

Imagine All That Brain Power in One Place

Apparently, Sarah Palin needed some help out on the campaign trail, so in the tradition of John McCain, she picked who she thought represented the best and the brightest…Elizabeth Hasselbeck from the View. Just think of all the talent McCain and Palin administration would surround themselves with.

What A Real Leader Does

A real leader raises the level of public discourse. A real leader speaks to the public like equals. A real leaders does not dumb things down.

Joe Klein on Barack Obama – “Why Brack Obama is Winning”.

He seemed to be thinking in my presence, rather than just reciting talking points, and it took him some time to think through my question about gut decisions. He said the first really big one was how to react when incendiary videos of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s black-nationalist sermons surfaced last spring. “The decision to make it big as opposed to make it small,” Obama said of the landmark speech on race relations he delivered in Philadelphia. “My gut was telling me that this was a teachable moment and that if I tried to do the usual political damage control instead of talking to the American people like … they were adults and could understand the complexities of race, I would be not only doing damage to the campaign but missing an important opportunity for leadership.”

Yes We Can

Illinois: Obama 61, McCain 32
Indiana: Obama 51, McCain 41
Iowa: Obama 52, McCain 39
Ohio: Obama 53, McCain 41
Michigan: Obama 58, McCain 36
Minnesota: Obama 57, McCain 38
Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 41
Wisconsin: Obama 53, McCain 40

Polls co-directed by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein with the cooperation of colleagues from participating Big Ten universities. More Info here.

And Quinnipiac University polls concur:
Florida: Obama 49, McCain 44
Ohio: Obama 52, McCain 38
Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 40

Dates conducted: Oct. 16-21. Error margin: Ranges from 2.6 to 2.7 points.

The End of Rovian Politics?

ABC News / Washington Post poll, among likely voters:

On Ayers: 60% say Obama’s connection to him is not a legitimate issue.

On Palin: 52% say McCain’s choice of her for veep weakens their confidence in his judgment.

More challenges for John McCain: Likely voters overwhelmingly reject his effort to make an issue of Barack Obama’s association with 1960s radical William Ayers. Fallout continues from McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin for vice president, with 52 percent saying it weakens their confidence in his judgment. And on optimism, it’s Obama by 2-1.

The Powell Endorsement

Watch the show here.

This is huge. I think this story is going to dominate the press for the next 2-3 days. What does that mean? No news coverage for McCain.

Powell’s performance on Meet The Press was fantastic. He presented a clear, logical, measured argument for Obama. He was kind to McCain – he cited his strengths and he applauded his service. However, his reasons for supporting Obama exhibited Powell’s intellect, his rationality, and the quality of his character. It seemed to me to be his ultimate redemptive moment 5 years in the making. I found this endorsement incredibly moving and historic.

If this dominates the press for the majority of the week – reaching the undecided (or possibly even previously decided) suburban moms and military folks in the swing states (i.e. Florida, W. Virginia, Virginia), McCain may be unable to recover.

The BOOM We have Been Waiting For

Mark Halperin has the news:

The former Bush Secretary of State crosses party lines to endorse Obama, citing his “ability to inspire and lead.”

Says the Illinois Senator dives deeply into issues and tackles them with a steady hand.

Makes the announcement on Sunday’s “Meet the Press.” Says he plans to vote– but not campaign– for Obama.

Powell also criticizes McCain’s negative ads, says he’s concerned by the choice of Palin as VP.

It’s The Temperament, Stupid

Georgie Packer on McCain’s change over the course of the election:

The contrast now is so severe that it makes running for President seem like a personal disaster on the scale of a prolonged nervous breakdown leading to physical and psychological ruin. This campaign has done something terrible to McCain. And it’s entirely his own fault. Character is fate.

And Obama’s perennial steadiness:

Obama’s character is a political triumph. His cool, unlike McCain’s tic-filled anger, is tactically deployed; throughout the campaign it’s become his main weapon against crisis and attack.

But…

But if he wins, he’ll need to play far more of his psychic register to have any chance of succeeding at the impossible job he’s so skillfully pursued. He’ll have to draw on humor, on empathy, on audacity, on courage, in order to inspire the kind of confidence the country badly lacks and needs. He might even have to get angry.

Live Blogging with Cocktails 2 by dressedtogo

UPDATE (aka the morning after):

McCain fought for his life. Fought. He had some pretty good jabs, especially early on. And he certainly put Obama on the offensive more than Obama put McCain on the offensive.

But looking at the polling, it appears that people are simply relating more to Barack Obama. Which is astounding if you think about it. As scrutin said, calm and steady trumped feisty and angry AGAIN.

McCain did everything he needed to do, and it was a much more convincing and specific performance from him. But it appears that people had already made up their minds.

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9:10 EST: So, already the cocktails got the best of me. I am starting the debate 10 minutes late. Thanks goodness for DVR

So, dressedtogo Live Blogging with Cocktails -10.

Bob Scheefer scares me. Barack looks hot.

9:15 EST: Angry. John McCain is angry. At least, he said it 4 times. You know what, I’m angry too, John McCain. At your hateful campaigning of late.

Barack jumps right in. Looks directly at the camera. Sounds more logical. McCain was wrong when he said homeowners and citizens are “innocent.”" We are not innocent. We bit off more than we could chew. He is talking quite fast, though.

9:19 EST: Plumber?

9:24 EST: The tax conversation is so surface level. “Raise taxes” or “Lower taxes.” Give us more credit. Stop talking circles around yourselves.

9:23 EST: Joe the Plumber? Really? McCain is wearing so much makeup.

9:29 EST: Spending = hatchets and scalpels. And enough with the overhead projector! (my buddy babyjonr dealt with this awhile ago)

9:36 EST: this is by far McCain’s best debate. I tend to think that it is because they are sitting down. We are not seeing their physical differences.

McCain equates Obama’s refusal to do the Town Hall debates to the anger and hatred of his campaign? Are you kidding?! Obama responds. He is talking issues more than mccain. McCain is talking politics. “I don’t mind being attacked for the next 3 weeks…” I just wish Obama could say “People are shouting “Kill ME” at your rallies, and you are not condemning it!” But he can’t…. HE DID! ! ooohhh snap!

9:45EST: McCain is given the opportunity to tell all of America “I am not responsible for those fringe comments at my rallies. They are not expressive of my view.” But he didn’t. HE played the victim. And as a result, he is now a completely dishonorable man. Shame on him. Shame on him.

9:51EST: This Ayers / ACORN discussion is repulsive. And it made McCain look dirty. Let’s move on. Oh, great. To running mates.

Obama on Biden – boring and biographical. but could resonate. core values, energy, regular guys, experience, american families…

McCain on Palin – insane. role model to women? reformers? mavericks? took on? what? money to the taxpayers? cut the size of gov’t – do we need that now? “reformer through and through”. “breath of fresh air”. “old boy network” = YOU, john mccain! reformer. special needs. “autism on the rise”?? united OUR party? proud of her? husband? tough? DOES SHE KNOW ANYTHING!? FOREIGN POLICY?

10 EST: mccain: “we dont tell countries that we unilaterally renegotiate with them.” re: canadian oil. yeah, but we unilaterally invade them.

10:03 EST: i think the cocktails beat obama and mccain. i can not stay objective anymore. im in too deep. columbia…. healthcare…. booooooorrrring. they are both boring.

10:11EST: mccain is so… uppity. JOE THE PLUMBER AGAIN!? mccain just attacks obama (“canada!” “england!”) but never describes his own plans. zzzzzz……..

10:18 EST: supreme court justices – FINALLY! mccain is SO CONDESCENDING. mccain says “breyer” instead of “alito.” pay attention, mr. potential president. obama +1 for saying “hypocratic oath”. obama says “abortion is a oral issue.” different for a dem.

10:33 EST: andrew sullivan says what i can not, because i like both wine and obama too much:

At no point have we seen a grace note from McCain. When dealing with the negativism of the campaign, it would not have killed him to seem genuinely horrified at calls for violence rather than offended that anyone dare criticize him or some of his supporters. Or to wish Obama well. It’s this lack of generosity of spirit that he lacks and that people want in a president. Obama still manages to say when he agrees with or admires McCain. In this whole dynamic, Obama seems more secure, more self-controlled, more mature. He is the Alpha Male on this stage, and McCain the bristling teen – aged 72. No wonder women seem to be so disproportionately pro-Obama.

10:35 EST: mccain was more convincing on education. more authoritative. but soooo condescending… again.

10:39 EST: a close draw. but mccain loses because he is a) condescending and b) he can not repudiate the tactics of his running mate and his supporters. he can not same obama’s name. he can not stand up for what is right by denouncing those that say “kill him!” at HIS rallies. shame on him. he had the chance. and he blew it. and people will remember.

and now on the project runway finale…

Republican In Independent’s Clothing

The last 8 years, and the disastrous McCain campaign have mad Republican a bad name. So what do you do if you are running under the Republican ticket? Why pretend you are an Independent of course. Daily Kos has a good round up of Republicans who are hiding out.

It’s not 2004 anymore

The Atlantic’s Mark Ambinder has a post on the AFL-CIO mailing targeting 80,000 swing voters who own guns in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The BOOMS! Just Keep Getting Bigger

From NY Times/CBS News, among likely voters:

Obama 53, McCain 39

In early October: Obama 48, McCain 45.

Dates conducted: Oct. 10-13. Error margin: 3 points.

And this has got to be killing the GOP:

What are the candidates spending more time doing?
Explaining what he would do:
Now: Obama 63, McCain 31
Sept. 25: Obama 56, McCain 38

Attacking the other candidate:
Now: McCain 61, Obama 27
Sept. 25: McCain 53, Obama 35

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Now, polls don’t mean much. But this lead is staggering. And I feel uplifted that the electorate appears to be punishing McCain for his intense negative campaigning of late. We know better. The old Rovian tactics are just not working. Not after Iraq, not after Katrina, not after the economic crisis.

Holding Steady

From Quinnipiac/washingtonpost.com/Wall Street Journal polls:

Colorado: Obama 52, McCain 43
Michigan: Obama 54, McCain 38
Minnesota: Obama 51, McCain 40
Wisconsin: Obama 54, McCain 37

Dates conducted: Oct. 8-12. Error margin: Ranges 2.8-3.1 points.

“Rope a Dope”

Andrew Sullivan discusses why “Barack Obama’s strategy of calm is provoking his rival into fatal errors.”

McCain never seemed to learn from the Clintons’ misjudgment of their rival. A key element of Obama’s strategy is classic rope-a-dope. He gets his opponents to splutter with irritation as “that one”, as McCain contemptuously described Obama in last Tuesday’s debate, glides towards them in the polls. He does his thing, raises masses of money, keeps his staff in perfect order and focuses on issues and themes. He can segue from the inspirational agent of change of the spring to the reassuring conventional pol of the autumn without anyone really noticing the seams. That takes political skill. You’ve either got it or you haven’t.

Obama rarely directly attacks. He subtly baits. His most brilliant rope-a-dope of the entire campaign was against Bill Clinton in the spring. In a newspaper interview, Obama cited Ronald Reagan as the last transformational president. He didn’t mention Clinton. The former president was offended by being implicitly dissed, took the bait and unleashed a series of unwise public scoffs at the young Democrat, culminating in a dismissal of Obama as another Jesse Jackson. Suddenly, black Democrats abandoned Clinton’s wife, and the Clintons’ base collapsed. Obama merely stepped out of the way as the Clintons self-destructed. He didn’t just end their campaign; he helped to bury their reputation.