The Beginning of The End. The Start of a New Dream.

Closing remarks from scrutin

This is the beginning of the end. The beginning of the end of two wars in the Middle East, to be sure, but more importantly it is the beginning of the end of a war within this country. 44 years ago The United States united to support the Civil Rights Act. Today we see the ultimate manifestation of this dream. Barack Obama represents so much. He raised himself up from humble beginnings and difficult times. He is notably multiracial. His life experiences have taught him about other religions and other cultures. He represents so much of America. He brings hope for something so much better.

I am 42 years old. I have seen a great deal of change in this country, some for the better and some for the worse. I never thought I would see this happen in my lifetime. Now that it is here I feel great pride in my country. I am enormously optimistic about our collective future.

The Obama campaign was deeply grassroots. He built a powerful organization that will forever change the way politics work in this country. He proved out the power of working from the bottom up. Barack Obama’s greatest challenge going forward will be to live up to the profound hopes and expectations that have been place on his shoulders. He has a powerful base to build on, an army of young and old committed to public service.

The hopes of not only this country, but of the world, who overwhelmingly supported him, rest upon him. He has already demonstrated his ability to surround himself with great people. If his campaign is any indication, his administration will be historic.

We awoke today a new nation, and there is much work still to do. It is time to end the war, to mend the fences, to join hands and lift each other up. It is time to move this nation forward.

Yes we can.

Hell yes, we did.

Mandate

President Obama!!!!!!!!!!!

What To Look For Tonight

Newsweek has an hour-by-hour look at the election by none other than Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight fame. It is everything that the election fetishist could hope for.

Web Tools For The Election Season

Lifehacker has a good writeup on some good tools to help you get through the election season.

It’s hard these days to imagine how elections happened before the web grew to popularity. With all the instant-access news, video, data, and social networking available in a few seconds’ time, election season is a prime time to dig in and find out where the candidates are getting and spending money, what’s being said by and about them and which of it is true, and how to make sure you get your vote in on Nov. 4. Read on for a roundup of 10 tools to get politically savvy this this election season and beyond.

The Real Voter Fraud

With all of the talk about Acorn and voter fraud, it seems the real issue of voter fraud is being missed. One study showed that during the period between 2002 and 2005 there were only 24 cases of voter fraud. This just distracts from the issue of voter suppression. 

We previously mentioned the GOP’s attempts to remove foreclosed voters in Michigan from the rosters. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. & Greg Palast have posted a great story on this over at Rolling Stone. From the article:

All told, states reported scrubbing at least 10 million voters from their rolls on questionable grounds between 2004 and 2006. Colorado holds the record: Donetta Davidson, the Republican secretary of state, and her GOP successor oversaw the elimination of nearly one of every six of their state’s voters. Bush has since appointed Davidson to the Election Assistance Commission, the federal agency created by HAVA, which provides guidance to the states on “list maintenance” methods.

A statistical analysis of New Mexico ballots by a voting-rights group called VotersUnite found that Hispanics who voted by computer in 2004 were nearly five times more likely to have their votes unrecorded than those who used paper ballots. In a close election, such small discrepancies can make a big difference: In 2004, the number of spoiled ballots in New Mexico — 19,000 — was three times George Bush’s margin of victory. 

[Via Rachel Maddow's Twitter feed]

Yes We Can

Illinois: Obama 61, McCain 32
Indiana: Obama 51, McCain 41
Iowa: Obama 52, McCain 39
Ohio: Obama 53, McCain 41
Michigan: Obama 58, McCain 36
Minnesota: Obama 57, McCain 38
Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 41
Wisconsin: Obama 53, McCain 40

Polls co-directed by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein with the cooperation of colleagues from participating Big Ten universities. More Info here.

And Quinnipiac University polls concur:
Florida: Obama 49, McCain 44
Ohio: Obama 52, McCain 38
Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 40

Dates conducted: Oct. 16-21. Error margin: Ranges from 2.6 to 2.7 points.

The Powell Endorsement

Watch the show here.

This is huge. I think this story is going to dominate the press for the next 2-3 days. What does that mean? No news coverage for McCain.

Powell’s performance on Meet The Press was fantastic. He presented a clear, logical, measured argument for Obama. He was kind to McCain – he cited his strengths and he applauded his service. However, his reasons for supporting Obama exhibited Powell’s intellect, his rationality, and the quality of his character. It seemed to me to be his ultimate redemptive moment 5 years in the making. I found this endorsement incredibly moving and historic.

If this dominates the press for the majority of the week – reaching the undecided (or possibly even previously decided) suburban moms and military folks in the swing states (i.e. Florida, W. Virginia, Virginia), McCain may be unable to recover.

Enough With The Acorn Stuff Already

To sum up what happened. Acorn hired about 13,000 people to help register votes. They were able to register about 1.3 million people. 1%-2% of the people they hired were scammers who filled out the forms with bogus names rather than actually doing the work. These people were fired.

Acorn Submitted these registrations because, by law, they have to. In order to make things easier for election officials, Acorn sorts the bogus registrations into a different pile and flags them.

The bogus names don’t allow anyone to actually cast an illegitimate vote, because first time voters are required to show ID. Not many people actually have an ID that says Mickey Mouse on it.

There is a good story on this over at The New Yorker.

So the big Acorn story as I see it is they registered 1.3 million voters. Can we talk about something else now?

“Shares My Values”

That same CBS poll notes:

Before the debate, fifty-four percent thought Obama shared their values. That percentage rose to sixty-four percent after the debate. For McCain, fifty-two percent thought he shared their values before the debate, and fifty-five percent thought so afterwards.

Live Blogging with Cocktails 2 by dressedtogo

UPDATE (aka the morning after):

McCain fought for his life. Fought. He had some pretty good jabs, especially early on. And he certainly put Obama on the offensive more than Obama put McCain on the offensive.

But looking at the polling, it appears that people are simply relating more to Barack Obama. Which is astounding if you think about it. As scrutin said, calm and steady trumped feisty and angry AGAIN.

McCain did everything he needed to do, and it was a much more convincing and specific performance from him. But it appears that people had already made up their minds.

*

9:10 EST: So, already the cocktails got the best of me. I am starting the debate 10 minutes late. Thanks goodness for DVR

So, dressedtogo Live Blogging with Cocktails -10.

Bob Scheefer scares me. Barack looks hot.

9:15 EST: Angry. John McCain is angry. At least, he said it 4 times. You know what, I’m angry too, John McCain. At your hateful campaigning of late.

Barack jumps right in. Looks directly at the camera. Sounds more logical. McCain was wrong when he said homeowners and citizens are “innocent.”" We are not innocent. We bit off more than we could chew. He is talking quite fast, though.

9:19 EST: Plumber?

9:24 EST: The tax conversation is so surface level. “Raise taxes” or “Lower taxes.” Give us more credit. Stop talking circles around yourselves.

9:23 EST: Joe the Plumber? Really? McCain is wearing so much makeup.

9:29 EST: Spending = hatchets and scalpels. And enough with the overhead projector! (my buddy babyjonr dealt with this awhile ago)

9:36 EST: this is by far McCain’s best debate. I tend to think that it is because they are sitting down. We are not seeing their physical differences.

McCain equates Obama’s refusal to do the Town Hall debates to the anger and hatred of his campaign? Are you kidding?! Obama responds. He is talking issues more than mccain. McCain is talking politics. “I don’t mind being attacked for the next 3 weeks…” I just wish Obama could say “People are shouting “Kill ME” at your rallies, and you are not condemning it!” But he can’t…. HE DID! ! ooohhh snap!

9:45EST: McCain is given the opportunity to tell all of America “I am not responsible for those fringe comments at my rallies. They are not expressive of my view.” But he didn’t. HE played the victim. And as a result, he is now a completely dishonorable man. Shame on him. Shame on him.

9:51EST: This Ayers / ACORN discussion is repulsive. And it made McCain look dirty. Let’s move on. Oh, great. To running mates.

Obama on Biden – boring and biographical. but could resonate. core values, energy, regular guys, experience, american families…

McCain on Palin – insane. role model to women? reformers? mavericks? took on? what? money to the taxpayers? cut the size of gov’t – do we need that now? “reformer through and through”. “breath of fresh air”. “old boy network” = YOU, john mccain! reformer. special needs. “autism on the rise”?? united OUR party? proud of her? husband? tough? DOES SHE KNOW ANYTHING!? FOREIGN POLICY?

10 EST: mccain: “we dont tell countries that we unilaterally renegotiate with them.” re: canadian oil. yeah, but we unilaterally invade them.

10:03 EST: i think the cocktails beat obama and mccain. i can not stay objective anymore. im in too deep. columbia…. healthcare…. booooooorrrring. they are both boring.

10:11EST: mccain is so… uppity. JOE THE PLUMBER AGAIN!? mccain just attacks obama (“canada!” “england!”) but never describes his own plans. zzzzzz……..

10:18 EST: supreme court justices – FINALLY! mccain is SO CONDESCENDING. mccain says “breyer” instead of “alito.” pay attention, mr. potential president. obama +1 for saying “hypocratic oath”. obama says “abortion is a oral issue.” different for a dem.

10:33 EST: andrew sullivan says what i can not, because i like both wine and obama too much:

At no point have we seen a grace note from McCain. When dealing with the negativism of the campaign, it would not have killed him to seem genuinely horrified at calls for violence rather than offended that anyone dare criticize him or some of his supporters. Or to wish Obama well. It’s this lack of generosity of spirit that he lacks and that people want in a president. Obama still manages to say when he agrees with or admires McCain. In this whole dynamic, Obama seems more secure, more self-controlled, more mature. He is the Alpha Male on this stage, and McCain the bristling teen – aged 72. No wonder women seem to be so disproportionately pro-Obama.

10:35 EST: mccain was more convincing on education. more authoritative. but soooo condescending… again.

10:39 EST: a close draw. but mccain loses because he is a) condescending and b) he can not repudiate the tactics of his running mate and his supporters. he can not same obama’s name. he can not stand up for what is right by denouncing those that say “kill him!” at HIS rallies. shame on him. he had the chance. and he blew it. and people will remember.

and now on the project runway finale…

It’s not 2004 anymore

The Atlantic’s Mark Ambinder has a post on the AFL-CIO mailing targeting 80,000 swing voters who own guns in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The BOOMS! Just Keep Getting Bigger

From NY Times/CBS News, among likely voters:

Obama 53, McCain 39

In early October: Obama 48, McCain 45.

Dates conducted: Oct. 10-13. Error margin: 3 points.

And this has got to be killing the GOP:

What are the candidates spending more time doing?
Explaining what he would do:
Now: Obama 63, McCain 31
Sept. 25: Obama 56, McCain 38

Attacking the other candidate:
Now: McCain 61, Obama 27
Sept. 25: McCain 53, Obama 35

*

Now, polls don’t mean much. But this lead is staggering. And I feel uplifted that the electorate appears to be punishing McCain for his intense negative campaigning of late. We know better. The old Rovian tactics are just not working. Not after Iraq, not after Katrina, not after the economic crisis.

“Rope a Dope”

Andrew Sullivan discusses why “Barack Obama’s strategy of calm is provoking his rival into fatal errors.”

McCain never seemed to learn from the Clintons’ misjudgment of their rival. A key element of Obama’s strategy is classic rope-a-dope. He gets his opponents to splutter with irritation as “that one”, as McCain contemptuously described Obama in last Tuesday’s debate, glides towards them in the polls. He does his thing, raises masses of money, keeps his staff in perfect order and focuses on issues and themes. He can segue from the inspirational agent of change of the spring to the reassuring conventional pol of the autumn without anyone really noticing the seams. That takes political skill. You’ve either got it or you haven’t.

Obama rarely directly attacks. He subtly baits. His most brilliant rope-a-dope of the entire campaign was against Bill Clinton in the spring. In a newspaper interview, Obama cited Ronald Reagan as the last transformational president. He didn’t mention Clinton. The former president was offended by being implicitly dissed, took the bait and unleashed a series of unwise public scoffs at the young Democrat, culminating in a dismissal of Obama as another Jesse Jackson. Suddenly, black Democrats abandoned Clinton’s wife, and the Clintons’ base collapsed. Obama merely stepped out of the way as the Clintons self-destructed. He didn’t just end their campaign; he helped to bury their reputation.

Colorado for Obama

I lived in Colorado for 5 years. I was there for the 2000 election, and watched the metropolitan part of the state (the Denver/Boulder corridor) come out for Gore and Nader. Boulder felt like the epi-center of the Green Party. Although I now fight my gut to blame Nader for this whole mess because of his 2000 candidacy, it was a tell-tale sign of how the state was changing. Little by little. The gubernatorial, senatorial and house races of 2004 continued to show that change is in the air. Now, according to Pollster, Obama is ahead of McCain in the polls- 50.9 to 44.6.

There has been a batch of great reporting on Colorado, but Ryan Lizza’s New Yorker piece, “The Code of the West” sums it up pretty nicely.

If Colorado goes blue, it’s a whole new ball game.

It’s Not Working

Obama breaks 50 in the National Polls.