Yes We Can

Illinois: Obama 61, McCain 32
Indiana: Obama 51, McCain 41
Iowa: Obama 52, McCain 39
Ohio: Obama 53, McCain 41
Michigan: Obama 58, McCain 36
Minnesota: Obama 57, McCain 38
Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 41
Wisconsin: Obama 53, McCain 40

Polls co-directed by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein with the cooperation of colleagues from participating Big Ten universities. More Info here.

And Quinnipiac University polls concur:
Florida: Obama 49, McCain 44
Ohio: Obama 52, McCain 38
Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 40

Dates conducted: Oct. 16-21. Error margin: Ranges from 2.6 to 2.7 points.

The End of Rovian Politics?

ABC News / Washington Post poll, among likely voters:

On Ayers: 60% say Obama’s connection to him is not a legitimate issue.

On Palin: 52% say McCain’s choice of her for veep weakens their confidence in his judgment.

More challenges for John McCain: Likely voters overwhelmingly reject his effort to make an issue of Barack Obama’s association with 1960s radical William Ayers. Fallout continues from McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin for vice president, with 52 percent saying it weakens their confidence in his judgment. And on optimism, it’s Obama by 2-1.

“Shares My Values”

That same CBS poll notes:

Before the debate, fifty-four percent thought Obama shared their values. That percentage rose to sixty-four percent after the debate. For McCain, fifty-two percent thought he shared their values before the debate, and fifty-five percent thought so afterwards.

Rational and Steady Wins The Debate

Looks like the initial polling gives a big win to Barack Obama in tonight’s debates. McCain seemed to lose ground not only with Independents, but with Republicans too. Five Thirty Eight has some early numbers, as does Daily Kos.

CBS polls say that Obama won 53% to 22% among undecideds.

[Update] Adding in Huffington Post coverage on this as well which has the Fox News post debate follow up.

The BOOMS! Just Keep Getting Bigger

From NY Times/CBS News, among likely voters:

Obama 53, McCain 39

In early October: Obama 48, McCain 45.

Dates conducted: Oct. 10-13. Error margin: 3 points.

And this has got to be killing the GOP:

What are the candidates spending more time doing?
Explaining what he would do:
Now: Obama 63, McCain 31
Sept. 25: Obama 56, McCain 38

Attacking the other candidate:
Now: McCain 61, Obama 27
Sept. 25: McCain 53, Obama 35

*

Now, polls don’t mean much. But this lead is staggering. And I feel uplifted that the electorate appears to be punishing McCain for his intense negative campaigning of late. We know better. The old Rovian tactics are just not working. Not after Iraq, not after Katrina, not after the economic crisis.

Kids Pick Their President

Scholastic News reporters Jack Greenberg and Lya Ferreyra discuss the results of Scholastic’s 2008 presidential election poll. Since 1940 kids have only gotten it wrong twice.

Holding Steady

From Quinnipiac/washingtonpost.com/Wall Street Journal polls:

Colorado: Obama 52, McCain 43
Michigan: Obama 54, McCain 38
Minnesota: Obama 51, McCain 40
Wisconsin: Obama 54, McCain 37

Dates conducted: Oct. 8-12. Error margin: Ranges 2.8-3.1 points.

Colorado for Obama

I lived in Colorado for 5 years. I was there for the 2000 election, and watched the metropolitan part of the state (the Denver/Boulder corridor) come out for Gore and Nader. Boulder felt like the epi-center of the Green Party. Although I now fight my gut to blame Nader for this whole mess because of his 2000 candidacy, it was a tell-tale sign of how the state was changing. Little by little. The gubernatorial, senatorial and house races of 2004 continued to show that change is in the air. Now, according to Pollster, Obama is ahead of McCain in the polls- 50.9 to 44.6.

There has been a batch of great reporting on Colorado, but Ryan Lizza’s New Yorker piece, “The Code of the West” sums it up pretty nicely.

If Colorado goes blue, it’s a whole new ball game.

It’s Not Working

Obama breaks 50 in the National Polls.

Reaction Groups Agree, Win to Obama

The Huffington Post has a good wrap up of the various reaction Groups and insta-polls here.

To sum it up,

FOX, CNN, CBS REACTION GROUPS:

OBAMA WON

One point to mention, Obama’s pick for Treasury Secretary, financial legend Warren Buffett. John McCain’s Pick,  dotcom CEO Meg Whitman.

Battleground Boom!

Time/CNN poll:

Among likely voters:

North Carolina: Obama 49, McCain 49
Ohio: Obama 50, McCain 47
Wisconsin: Obama 51, McCain 46
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 46
New Hampshire: Obama 53, McCain 45

Dates conducted: Oct. 3-6. Error margin: Ranges from 3.5-4.0 points. Read more here.

Ohio?! Indiana?! NORTH CAROLINA?

BOOM!

The McCain camp must be having a hard day. Try spinnin’ this one yo!

From latest TIME/CNN state polls:

FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47
MINNESOTA: Obama 54, McCain 43
MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48
NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 47
VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44

Dates conducted: Sept. 28-30. Error margin: Ranges from 3.5 to 4 points.

(Thanks, P)

Holy %^&!

From Quinnipiac University poll:

FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 43

OHIO: Obama 50, McCain 42

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 54, McCain 39

Dates conducted: Sept. 27-29. Error margin: 3.4 percentage points.

*

Why? McCain has had three horrible weeks… the Palin downspiral keeps spiraling downward, his campaign suspension stunt produced no results (he did not event SPEAK in the meeting at the White House, he clearly has no influence over house republicans, his impulsive and erratic tendencies were on full view), he had a snotty debate performance… the list goes on and on.

I do believe (at least the cock-eyed optimist in me believes) that Americans are smarter than we were 3 years ago… Katrina was a watershed and we now recognize incompetence and impulsiveness when we see it. In my view, McCain’s debate performance highlighted his stark contrasts with Obama, not necessary in terms of policies, but in terms of temperament. Americans noticed. Floridians noticed. Ohioans notices. Pennsylvanians noticed. After 8 years of Bush and Cheney shootin’ from the hip, mis-step after mis-step, error and error, reckless action after reckless after, the American people know it when they see it. I think we are yearning for calm and rational leadership.

I think these episodes were John McCain’s Katrina.

UPDATE: Nate Silver provides the raw data.

The Party is over

Political Wire is reporting, “palin’s favorability ratings tumble.”

Gov. Sarah Palin’s favorable/unfavorable ratings have suffered a stunning 21 point collapse in just one week, according to Research 2000 polling. Last week, 52% approved and 35% disapproved of the GOP vice presidential nominee (+17 net). This week, 42% approved and 46% disapprove (-4 net). 

He’s Back!

From Quinnipiac University poll:

Obama 49, McCain 45

Dates conducted: Sept. 11-16. Error margin: 3.1 points.

From CBS News/New York Times poll:

Obama 48, McCain 43, undecided 7

Dates conducted: Sept. 12-16. Error margin: 3 points

But it’s not over.